Fern: AI was supposed to gut the job market. So why hasn't it?
Fern: A new paper has a pretty clear answer: most companies aren't really using AI. Like, at all.
Fern: The researchers split firms into adoption tiers. Bottom two-thirds — low spend per employee — saw zero hiring change. Flat. Same as firms using no AI.
Fern: But the top tier… those firms grew headcount by 10% over two years.
Fern: The threshold that matters is roughly $30 per employee per month on AI tooling. Below that, nothing moves.
Fern: So the aggregate looks calm because the heavy users are still a small slice. The signal is real — it's just concentrated.
Fern: Search for Ara Kharazian's paper — he posted the thread on X July 22nd. The methodology on how they defined adoption tiers is worth reading.
Fern: The tsunami metaphor people are using is apt. Quiet water doesn't mean nothing's coming.